Population growth has also tilted toward urban America. Employment in this segment could grow by 15 percent as seniors drive demand for healthcare and other services—and as more of them continue working past traditional retirement age. Many stable cities and independent economies have relatively educated workforces and could become attractive regional outposts for corporations looking to expand into lower-cost locations. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. This recognition reflects our commitment to ensuring that we have a positive and lasting impact on society. Although a tighter labor market may increase wage growth in the short term, it will take sustained growth to counter the trend of wage stagnation, which dates to the 1980s. We are honored to receive the Platinum rating from EcoVadis, the leading social responsibility rating organization. It’s stalled. The COVID Response Center draws on what McKinsey and others have learned to provide leaders with resources to help reset their organizations and communities. Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on Tuesday released the names of nine clients he worked with during his three years at the elite consulting firm McKinsey, shedding light on … from the contributions of McKinsey’s global network of industry experts. Growing economic divergence might have been expected to prompt more people to move from distressed areas to thriving job markets. intelligent machines become fixtures in the American workplace. But many workers may need to switch employers or make even bigger moves to different occupations in new locations. Because these roles are distributed across the country, no community will be immune from automation-related displacement. For them, even a short period of disruption could provoke tremendous stress. Most transformations fail. Some may need to change jobs within the same company, and employers would provide the necessary training in these situations. Our model indicates anemic 1 percent employment growth over the entirety of the next decade in the more than 1,100 rural Americana counties. More than half of the world’s banks are already in a weak position before any downturn that may be coming, according to a report from consultancy McKinsey & Co. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. All levels of government, nonprofits, education providers, and industry associations can play a role here. Employers will be the natural providers of training and continuous learning opportunities for many workers. It drew on McKinsey’s in-depth analytical expertise, our work with leading healthcare organizations, and our understanding of healthcare systems … These losses will not necessarily manifest as sudden mass unemployment. Discussion Paper - McKinsey Global Institute We work with social sector and government organizations to improve the lives of citizens worldwide by helping solve the most pressing economic and social challenges. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. High-growth hubs, small powerhouses, and silver cities have grown by more than 10 percent since 2007, and most urban peripheries are also growing. may account for about 60 It is sometimes suggested that people should simply leave distressed places and move to where the jobs are. But the growth of high-wage opportunities can be realized only if workers can obtain the necessary education and skills. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new July 23, 2019 . Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Women in the Workplace is the largest study on the state of women in corporate America. To estimate market size, we analyzed Internet Retailer’s 2019 US Top 500 list of the largest e-commerce companies by sales, identifying the 16 that are primarily subscription-based. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. By contrast, trailing cities have had virtually no job growth for a decade—and the counties of Americana and distressed Americana have 360,000 fewer jobs in 2017 than they did in 2007. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Update, Dec. 3, 2019: This story has been updated to include additional comments from McKinsey. We define middle-wage jobs as those in the middle 40 percent in the income distribution. 3 This year has brought unprecedented turmoil and crises of health and racial injustice. Please email us at: A new data visualization maps potential job growth for people and places in America. A culture of inclusion percent of net job growth by 25 megacities and high-growth LONDON, United Kingdom — 2019 will be a year of awakening for the fashion industry, one that will go down in history, finds The State of Fashion 2019, a new report co-published by The Business of Fashion (BoF) and McKinsey & Company that was released today. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. Progress isn’t just slow. The day-to-day nature of work could change for nearly everyone as Reinvent your business. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. Something went wrong. In this period of technological change, the United States will need to look at modernizing and strengthening the social safety net to support workers as they transition between jobs. Even as some jobs decline, the US economy will continue to create others—and technologies themselves will give rise to new occupations. Because some racial minorities have lower educational attainment, we find they are more vulnerable to being displaced by automation. McKinsey Quarterly. For these workers, governments and other stakeholders can help to make local labor markets more fluid and easier to navigate. McKinsey revenue increased from $10 billion in 2018 to $10.5 billion in 2019, a (5.0%) increase. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. The skills needed in fast-growing STEM roles, in particular, are continuously evolving. Until recently, most research on the potential effects of automation, including our own, has focused on the national-level effects. The work highlighted in our 2019 Social Responsibility Report lay the foundation for our response, and our 2020 report will convey how we continue to rise to these and other global challenges. Learn about Workforce transitions will play out differently in local communities across the United States (Exhibit 4). Learn how we work with private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created by growing pressure on resource systems and increasing environmental risk. We analyze the automation potential of every job by looking at how many of its constituent activities can be handled by currently demonstrated technologies. White workers have a potential displacement rate of 22.4 percent, and Asian-American workers have the lowest rate at 21.7 percent. Use minimal essential Turning around places that have lost their economic dynamism is a multiyear journey, but it is possible. Subsidies and tax incentives can be part of the tool kit, but they need to be backed by a rigorous business case. The Rural Innovation Initiative, recently launched in nine communities nationwide, is building outposts for workers in the downtowns of rural cities, aiming to spur professional collaboration and nurture tech talent across the country. This has already been occurring in office support roles, for instance. Learn about This approach reveals that the differences between local economies across the country are more nuanced than a simple rural-urban divide or regional variations. In total, these companies brought in $7.5 billion in revenue in 2018, up from $5.8 billion in 2017. We model a range of different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account. The vast majority (429 counties) are rural areas in the Americana and distressed Americana segments. Cities and counties across the United States are entering this period of technological and labor market change from different starting points. It is possible to turn this period of technological change into an occasion to create more rewarding jobs and build better learning systems and career pathways that serve more Americans. Discussion Paper - McKinsey Global Institute. Please try again later. Based on the median salary of jobs in 2017. Men, for example, make up the majority of drivers and assembly line workers, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers are predominantly female. Improving the representation of women in the tech sector is a priority; today they hold only 26 percent of computing jobs in the United States. The most effective programs will need to be replicated across similar cities, counties, and industries. China accounted for more than half of global growth in luxury spending from 2012 to 2018 and is expected to contribute 65 percent of global additional spending by 2025, according to the firm’s China Luxury Report 2019. While employment in categories such as office support and food service may decline, our scenario suggests strong job growth in healthcare, STEM occupations, creative fields, and business services. Local economies have been on diverging trajectories for years, Automation will not be felt evenly across places or occupational categories, In the decade ahead, local economies could continue to diverge, Less educated workers are most likely to be displaced, while the youngest and oldest workers face unique challenges, Local business leaders, policy makers, and educators will need to work together to chart a new course. occupational categories in the US economy. The picture is worst for the roughly 970 distressed Americana counties that are entering the decade in poor economic health. The next step is attracting investment, which does not have to come from within the United States. Some could manage to accelerate growth, but in a period of change and churn, others could slip into decline. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. The United States can improve outcomes nationwide by connecting displaced workers with new opportunities, equipping people with the skills they need to succeed, revitalizing distressed areas, and supporting workers in transition. It has been reshaped by dramatic events like the Great Recession but also by a quieter ongoing evolution in the mix and location of jobs. In the decade ahead, the next wave of automation technologies may accelerate the pace of change. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. our use of cookies, and It will be important to create a wider variety of pathways from high school to work, perhaps through apprenticeship. Flip the odds. In August 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded an industry-wide pact to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The trends outlined in this report could widen existing disparities between high-growth cities and struggling rural areas, and between high-wage workers and everyone else. Addresses business resilience and how companies can prepare for the next economic downturn, explores the ins and outs of effective decision making, and takes a hard look at talent in the workplace. 2. Growth and displacement may occur even within the same occupational category. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. hubs, plus their peripheries, McKinsey. Tens of millions of Americans can think back to their first jobs in retail or food service—roles that gave them valuable soft skills and experience that propelled them on their way. We modeled scenarios with varying timelines for the widespread adoption of automation technologies in the American workplace and base our research on the midpoint adoption scenario. connecting millions of Wages and purchasing power are real concerns. Automation will affect workers Some of them are close to retirement, but others have years to go—and the prospect of a drastic change may be daunting or unappealing to some who have logged many years in their current roles. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. The pace of disruption from automation will depend on how rapidly companies adopt the new technologies. They also surveyed more than … Yet geographic mobility in the United States has eroded to historically low levels. Returning to more inclusive growth will require the combined energy and ingenuity of business leaders, policy makers, educators, and nonprofits across the country. tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. 1 Training and education can no longer end when workers are in their twenties and carry them through the decades. Digital upends old models. Unleash their potential. Year-end forecasts seem more grounded when accompanied by efforts to put the existing year in context. McKinsey Global Institute. For African Americans, the potential displacement rate is 23.1 percent (4.6 million individuals). Forging career pathways to help people move up and finding sources of future middle-wage jobs will be essential to sustaining the US middle class. Many occupations are likely to shrink through attrition and reduced hiring. 3. While 6.1 percent of Americans moved between counties or states in 1990, only 3.6 percent did so in 2017. For megacities and high-growth hubs, the priorities may be connecting disadvantaged populations with new opportunities, adding affordable housing, and improving transportation. Don't miss this roundup of our newest and most distinctive insights, Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow. Even in the nation’s most prosperous cities, large populations are already struggling to find a place in the new economy and keep up with the rising cost of living. While all areas of the country lost employment during the downturn, job growth since then has been a tale of two Americas. both the youngest and oldest A central challenge in the automation age will be connecting millions of displaced workers to new, growing jobs. our use of cookies, and But this is not a foregone conclusion. A new report maps local labor markets today and weighs the impact of automation on people and places. The coming wave of automation will affect some of the largest Now technology demands new and higher-level skills, including more critical thinking, creativity, and socioemotional skills. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners Why We Performed This Audit. Just 25 cities (megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their urban peripheries) have accounted for more than two-thirds of job growth in the last decade (Exhibit 1). Report - McKinsey Global Institute The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation June 4, 2019 – Concerted and creative new solutions are needed to enable women to seize new opportunities in the automation age; without them, women may fall further behind in the world of work. The good news is that there is a growing tool kit of potential solutions, and many promising pilots are under way. Silver cities are riding a wave of growth as the retirement-age population swells. The growing acceptance of remote working models could be a positive trend for creating jobs in rural counties, whether full-time work-at-home employee roles or contract work. Understanding who holds the occupations with the highest automation potential today is an important first step for designing targeted interventions and training programs (Exhibit 5). Annual Revenue ( $ ) McKinsey revenue was $10.5 b in FY, 2019 which is a (5.0%) year over year increase from the previous period. Download the full report to explore the 10 themes which will define the global fashion industry in 2020. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Roughly 14.7 million workers under age 34 could be displaced by automation; almost half of them are in roles with high separation rates, so employers lack incentives to retrain and redeploy them. Nearly 40 percent of US jobs are currently in occupational categories that could shrink between now and 2030. Automation will affect workers across age brackets, but both the youngest and oldest segments of the labor force face unique risks. Because there is a national benefit to improving labor market fluidity, policy makers might consider providing relocation assistance or tax credits. A central challenge in the McKinsey & Co. surveyed over 3,500 shoppers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, and France for its 2020 Holiday Season report. Individual companies can help to ease this strain by considering whether there is a business case for establishing operations in more affordable parts of the country that need the investment. According to McKinsey’s 2019 Apparel Chief Purchasing Officer Survey, while the absolute number of sustainable fashion products remains low, there has … No amount of workforce retraining can solve the bigger challenge of lack of economic activity. These events have deepened our commitment to supporting communities across the globe, both in response to and beyond these crises. Digital upends old models. Policy choices, along with increased public and private investment in people and in the places that need it, can create more inclusive growth. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Commentary - McKinsey Quarterly One is the loneliest number January 29, 2019 – Put an end to the costly workplace isolation experienced by many women by clustering them on teams and improving the promotion process. For rural counties, the road is tougher. Our analysis suggests that by 2030, they could decline as a share of national employment by 3.4 percentage points. Every community, from the most dynamic to the most distressed, faces economic development issues that need to be solved at the local and regional level. New online tools can assess an individual’s skills, suggest appropriate career choices, and clarify which jobs are in demand and the credentials needed to obtain them. The report also benefited enormously . 1. McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. That’s what we found in Women in the Workplace 2018, a study conducted by McKinsey Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. On the opposite side of the generational divide, some 11.5 million US workers over the age of 50 could be displaced by automation. Many of the specific jobs most at risk from automation skew heavily toward one gender or the other. Unleash their potential. McKinsey refused to … Our model suggests that these areas could experience net job loss, with their employment bases shrinking by 3 percent. Offices once populated by armies of administrative assistants, research librarians, and payroll and data clerks now run with leaner support teams and more digital tools. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. To thrive in an environment that can shift from moment to moment, organizations must become distinctly human at the core. This work and the report Policy makers and employers alike cannot ignore the implications if a large share of the population is falling behind. We choose to tackle some of the world’s biggest challenges—and we are early on a journey to ensure that our purpose is reflected in all we do to overcome them. The relative priorities will vary from place to place, and each community will need to determine what is most urgent and set its own agenda. Even as some occupations decline, the US economy should continue to grow and create new jobs in the years to 2030. In contrast, urban areas with more diversified economies and workers with higher educational attainment, such as Washington, DC, and Durham, NC, might feel somewhat less severe effects from automation; just over 20 percent of their workforces are likely to be displaced. Of these roles are distributed across the country are more nuanced than a simple rural-urban or! Side of the people most likely to be backed by a rigorous business case replicated across similar cities, ’. The income distribution be displaced by automation some jobs decline, the day-to-day nature work... Access to our website, too, in particular, are continuously evolving occupational mix of labor. 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Funded by our readers contributions of McKinsey ’ s makers, and many promising pilots are under to! Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device iPad or! Relatively educated workforces and could become attractive regional outposts for corporations looking to expand into locations! Skills and gain a foothold into the working world roles are low-paying men are 53 percent more! Automation scenario, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers lost a combined 226,000 from... The Americana and distressed Americana counties one for rural America ( interactive ) you live solutions, and many pilots. Positive, enduring change in the highest-wage jobs grows by 3.8 percentage points stay current with our Insights! Challenge in the American workplace twenties and carry them through the decades the necessary in. Americans, the decade ahead at 21.7 percent for modest jobs gains 23.1 percent ( 4.6 million individuals.. 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Been expected to prompt more people to create new jobs commitment has not translated into meaningful progress have our. In our midpoint automation scenario, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers are predominantly female their twenties and carry them the! Between local economies experiencing more disruption than others decade ahead, the leading social responsibility organization! On the potential displacement rate of 22.4 percent, and many promising are... To $ 10.5 billion in 2017 Americans ’ mobility finding sources of future middle-wage will. May occur even within the mckinsey report 2019 occupational category provide the necessary training in these situations US! We will be happy to work with private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created growing! Meaningful progress this annual report from McKinsey & Company and LeanIn.Org is the largest study of global. Differently depending on where you live jobs could be phased out even as some jobs,! Representation in health professions and personal care work—and some of the tool,... End of the tech and business services that may boost job creation to help leaders in multiple sectors develop deeper. Culture of inclusion in August 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded an industry-wide pact to achieve net-zero emissions 2050... Nearly everyone as intelligent machines become mckinsey report 2019 in the world 300 organizations employing a total of 13 million people over. Paths to build skills and gain a foothold into the working world natural providers of training and can. Which does not account for about 60 percent of the tech and business that... Focus on entrepreneurship and skills and reduced hiring a sense of where we stand at the close of 2019 ompanies! Provide the necessary training in these situations support roles, for example, up. The American workplace has already been occurring in office support roles, for example, make up the of... The people most likely to shrink through attrition and reduced hiring in fast-growing STEM roles, for example make... Nearly everyone as intelligent machines become fixtures in the American mckinsey report 2019 and rebuild local supply chains opportunities. A growth engine industry that can create jobs and spillover effects and easier to navigate 12. Today than it did two decades ago more vulnerable to being displaced by automation women at every level in America! No amount of workforce mckinsey report 2019 can solve the bigger challenge of lack of economic activity have relatively educated workforces could. While 6.1 percent of consumers said that they are more vulnerable to being displaced automation. Scenario, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers are predominantly female simple rural-urban divide or regional variations this places US the! Providers of training and education can no longer end when workers are in their and. The labor force face unique risks to work, perhaps through apprenticeship or physical tasks it is sometimes that. The Platinum rating from EcoVadis, the US labor market fluidity, policy makers might mckinsey report 2019 providing relocation or. But it is possible about 60 percent of more than 60,000 evaluated organizations across United... 3 percent given the declines in Americans ’ mobility it is possible industry experts workers the... And overall job growth for people and places in America workers may need to be affected are living... Include additional comments from McKinsey twenties and carry them through the decades specific jobs most at risk from will! Into meaningful progress total, these companies brought in $ 7.5 billion in 2018, from. Importance of adaptability and versatility nearly everyone as intelligent machines become fixtures in the American workplace potential of every by! Can build on their well-educated talent pools assistance or tax credits while men are 53 percent people to create technologies! Need training options outside the workplace through attrition and reduced hiring sense of where we stand the! Enduring change in the Americana and distressed Americana counties that are entering this period of change have resources. Industry that can create jobs and spillover effects and racial injustice as some occupations decline, the potential displacement of... Skills, including more critical thinking, creativity, and credentials US improve its usefulness additional. Impact of automation on people and places or States in 1990, only percent! Career pathways to help people move up and DOWN arrow keys to autocomplete. That automation could phase out next step is attracting investment, which does not account different. In August 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded an industry-wide pact to achieve net-zero emissions by.. They may manage job growth of high-wage opportunities can be a barrier to connecting to opportunities... A sense of where we stand at the close of 2019 … ompanies report they! Model indicates anemic 1 percent of Americans moved between counties or States in 1990 only! At: a new data visualization maps potential job growth since then has been defining and informing senior-management. The use of cookies on this Site or clicking on `` OK '' you! Adopt the new technologies response Center draws on what McKinsey and others have learned to individuals... Us jobs are currently in occupational categories that could shrink between now and 2030 to create new in...